That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank. You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges. Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.
The way to play the soccer market is to open accounts with European bookmakers as the difference in opinion between UK and European bookmakers is a good source of sure bets. They both have strong opinions on this sport. They will price up the sport in their own country and the matches in foreign countries. Anything to make a profit.
So, how do you determine the value of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crucial point of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting "system" together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
Other tests were done, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by betting on other sports where small odds swings occur, such as American Football, snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too large). The results here just about covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it is not worthwhile.
You must also make sure that you are familiar with the market that you are betting on, as again the rules can change depending on the Bookmakers or Exchange. Make sure if you back an event on a certain market at the Bookmakers, you are laying the same one at the Exchange. Also, sometimes the commission rates at the Exchanges will change for certain markets, so be careful of this too - you could be losing out on some extra money if you forget to knock the commission rate down to %3 in some cases.
The more emotion you can rule out of your betting, the more successful you will become. You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket. Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
Say that Man Utd are playing Aston Villa in a football match. The odds for Man Utd to win (when expressed as decimal odds) are 2.25 (or 5/4 as fractional). The odds for Aston Villa to win are 4 (or 3/1). Odds for the draw are 3 (or 2/1).
If you were to lay Aston Villa to win, and you were willing to do this with an amount of £10, you are basically offering £10 for someone to bet on Aston Villa to win. You are taking the place of the Bookie, 11bet
and allowing a punter to place a bet.
When you lay a bet, you are betting against that event happening - so in this example, you are betting against Aston Villa winning the match. If Aston Villa lose or draw, then you are successful. Only if they win, have you lost your money.
It is very simple to lay a bet at Betfair. You simply find the relevant market and find the same event which you have bet on (if you are matching a bet) and then you will see pink and white values on either side of the screen. The white values are to back an event, which is just to bet on the event. The pink side is the lay side, which are the lay prices that are currently available. The amount of money which is available at each of the prices are listed below each of the values, so that you know how much you can use.
Stick to familiar sports and markets
You have probably noticed by now that every example written on this website involves football. This is because it is believed to be the 'safest' sport to bet on, in terms of the rules at the Bookmakers and the Exchanges. For example, in a sport like tennis, its quite possible that a player could retire during the match due to an injury. Some Bookmakers might have one set of rules for this event occurring, and decide not to pay out on the winner, and an Exchange might have different rules too. Also with horse-racing, if a horse is a non-runner and pulls out, the rules can again change depending on the Bookmaker. By all means you can bet with other sports than football, but just make sure you are familiar with the rules. Football is deemed to be pretty safe, in the way that most Bookmakers and Exchanges employ the same rules, so its rare that something would go wrong.Of course if you are not happy with the Lay odds available at the Exchange at Betfair you are able to set your own price, and then put the amount of money you are willing to accept there. Then it is up to another user to choose to accept that Lay value, and to choose the amount of money they wish to take of it. If no-one accepts that (the bet doesn't get matched) then you will have to lower your lay value or cancel it completely.
You may now be thinking that this just sounds like another form of gambling, and to be honest it is, but there is a way of using it to guarantee a profit with a little help from online bookies.
Often when you use an online bookmaker, they will offer you some form of a sign up bonus - for example, when you sign up and place a £30 bet, they will give you a free £30 bet.
The free bet or bonus enables a profit to be made from bet laying/matching.
When you match a bet, you are basically covering both sides of the bet.
Imagine you were to lay a bet, as mentioned earlier on in this article. Then you make exactly the same bet but this time you bet normally, by staking a certain amount at certain odds, at a bookmakers. If you win your bet with the bookies, you will get your winnings from that bet but you will also have to "pay out" for your lay. This is where the two outcomes cancel each other out, meaning you have lost nothing (but also gained nothing). However, if you were to use a free bet or bonus money, then either on the lay or the bet you will make a profit.
3(a) You learn about and become experienced in in-play betting and are prepared to devote almost all your time glued to a computer screen while following each match, sometimes more than one simultaneously.
The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet. Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% ! Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.
Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the Web for a tool to calculate it proved negative. The writer therefore created one that encompasses not only all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis scoring system, and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a better name.